SpaceRAT

Space Risk Analysis Tool

"SpaceRAT is not just a database… Databases are great to know what has happened in the past, but we want to use that information to know what will happen in the future."

Sciemus' Space Risk Assessment Tool or "SpaceRAT" was developed by more than forty scientists over a two year period. SpaceRAT is a complex analytical model that evaluates the technical risk associated with a space mission. It provides a detailed understanding of the probability of satellite failure and the impact of such failures on the performance of the satellite from launch until the end of life. This is achieved through the combination of highly sophisticated analytical models with three decades of comprehensive data from previously flown space missions. SpaceRAT was built in conjunction with QinetiQ specifically for the purpose of evaluating the risk of failure associated with satellites.

Unlike most modelling processes that rely upon the analysis of past losses, SpaceRAT analyses the reliability of each critical component on a satellite and highlights areas that may carry specific concerns given the history and legacy of that spacecraft. For an operational satellite, additional data such as losses of redundancy or failures of particular components can be incorporated into the analysis. These reliabilities are combined to produce an overall technical risk rate for the satellite.

SpaceRAT uses the available information to assess the risk to any spacecraft. It highlights those areas that may carry specific concerns given the history and legacy of that spacecraft, or the individual components on that spacecraft.

In 2007, PwC carried out an independent assessment of SpaceRAT and here are a couple of excerpts from their report:

“Back testing results show all of the past 11 years of market experience fall within a 95% confidence interval based on results provided by SpaceRAT for failures in the market.”
“SpaceRAT provides valuable estimates of satellite failure risks – a significant risk for securitisation structures of in-orbit satellite cash flows”

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